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RESEARCH PROJECTS

LAND USE PORTFOLIO MODEL

Abstract

The primary objective of the project is to develop an ecosystem portfolio model (EPM) for DOI resource managers to use to reconcile the need to maintain the ecological health of South Florida parks and refuges with increasing pressures for urban development.  The EPM, a Geographic Information System based decision support tool, will integrate natural science and economic information to support land use planning, land acquisition strategies, and regulatory decisions.  The EPM will contribute to improved public understanding and awareness of the importance of protecting South Florida ecosystem functions and their socioeconomic implications.    

The project is designed to address the following questions and needs in the DOI Science Plan (2005):

·        What are the socioeconomic consequences of development and preservation/restoration decisions associated with critical components of the South Florida ecosystem?

·        Are there ways to increase sustainable compatibility of the built environment with natural system needs of national parks and refuges – especially, relevant to water-related challenges?

·        Conduct studies to estimate the economic value of key environmental and ecological resources affected by development and preservation/restoration decisions;

·        Aggregate and quantify the large uncertainties associated with these decisions;

·        Develop a GIS-based decision framework in a decision support system (DSS) that will provide land managers and local officials with a clearer idea of the economic consequences of various courses of action.

Final Product

A broad based decision support tool based on the Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) (Bernknopf et al., 2005) will be developed. The Ecosystem Portfolio Modeler (EPM) has two components: (1) maintain ecological viability of parks and refuges, and (2) minimize the adverse economic impacts on land values and economic externalities that affect community wealth by (a) minimizing adverse environmental impacts and (b) appropriating land, development rights, or other form of intervention.  Specific applications of the EPM will be undertaken within the Greater Everglades Restoration area.  GIS databases will be created to organize EPM inputs and outputs and to display model results in an understandable and useful way.

Tasks 

Task 1: The first stage is model development and implementation.  The conceptual and empirical EPM framework development, integration of the natural and socioeconomic data into the decision framework, econometric estimation of land values, and estimation of economic impacts on communities are the elements of this task.  Also, we will implement the framework in a working model for a land acquisition strategy in southern Miami-Dade County by the end of FY 2006.  The dynamic version of the EPM and case studies will be developed following the implementation of the initial working version of the model.

 Task 2: Changing land use within the land bridge separating BNP and ENP will alter surface and ground water quality and quantity, and affect the ecological sustainability of the protected areas.  A GIS analysis allows the impact of land use changes and mitigation actions within the land bridge to be considered in the context of  their effects on BNP and ENP.  Estimates of multiple forcing functions (e.g., altered hydrology and nutrient inputs) originating in the land bridge will be utilized to consider probable alterations in economic and ecological value of habitat and ecosystem conditions.

 Task 2 includes:

  • Collection and organization of relevant GIS data:

  1. Land use and land cover

  2. Future land use, proposed land bridge development information

  3. Parcel data and property values

  4. Chemical, physical, and biologic data: nutrients, sediments, hydrology, and habitats

  5. Roads/streets

  6. Municipal, park, development, protected area boundaries

  7. Orthoimagery

  8. Population – current and future projections

  9. Elevation

  10. Estimates of land bridge mitigation costs

  11. Other data as needed

 Task 3: The final task focuses on the development of indicators that may respond to land use decisions, and are key to decision-making. The EPM uses an attribute ranking approach to convert maps of physical attributes into domains of ecological and environmental favorability, i.e., the likelihood of a natural setting containing an ecosystem target.  These statistics provide input to measures of efficiency, productivity, benefits, and risk.  The statistics are used to identify a specific number of expected targets in the EPM.  Indices and favorabilities (as affected by decisions) will be utilized to produce a representation of wealth subject to meeting targets.  These indicators will be ecological and economic, with targets defined using stakeholder requirements and will be used to determine key ecological and economic land use favorabilities. 

The principal components of Task 3 include:

  1. Development of Ecological Favorability Indices

  2. Development of Socioeconomic Indices

  3. Development of Ecosystem Portfolio Risk Indices

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Last Updated: 1/25/06